Projecting global marine biodiversity impacts under climate change scenarios
Authors: William W.L. Cheung, Vicky W.Y. Lam, Jorge L. Sarmiento, Kelly Kearney, Reg Watson, and Daniel Pauly.
Blog Author: Maria Goller
William Cheung bio:
Got his BS and Masters in Hong Kong.
Got his PhD from UBC.
He is an associate professor at the Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, which is part of the University of British Columbia, Vancouver campus.
He is part of the Changing Ocean Research Unit.
He is interested in how direct (fishing) and indirect (climate change) human impacts affect marine ecosystems, as well as in determining how best to manage such systems.
Vicky Lam bio:
Program manager and fisheries economist at the Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries.
She is interested in a variety of topics that center on the relationship between socioeconomics, fisheries, and climate change.
Objective:
The authors wanted to determine how marine biodiversity will change with climate change.
They used a bioclimate envelope model to determine how species' distributions will shift with the warming climate.
Introduction
We know that marine species will shift their range latitudinally and/or change their depth with changes to ocean temperature.
We don't have a good understanding of the global pattern of marine biodiversity change.
Methods
They constructed bioclimate envelopes (“preference profiles” of the ecological conditions suitable for a species) for 1,066 species, and modeled how these are likely to change.
Main factors in their model:
> Population growth, larval dispersal, adult migration
> Carrying capacity and abundance
Other factors they included in their model:
> Sea surface/bottom temperature
> Salinity
> Ice cover
> Ocean currents (somewhat)
> Underwater depth
> Habitat architecture - reef, estuary, seamount
> Coastal upwelling
Factors they did NOT include:
> Predation
> Change in food availability
> Flexibility/adaptability of species
> Fishing and other anthropogenic effects
> Ocean acidification
Results
More invasion into polar regions, more local extinction in tropical regions
Closed bodies of water will be more affected
Expected extinction rate of marine organisms is lower than for terrestrial organisms
Takeaway Messages:
The change in diversity will be similar between terrestrial and marine habitats.
This was the first investigation of proposed global changes in marine biodiversity due to climate change.
Thoughts:
I am impressed by the work they did to develop this model. However, I wish they had included some behavioral data for the species. Unfortunately, behavior always comes last (because it’s hard to incorporate).
I like how they discussed different oceans/regions separately, but I would have liked to see more of this. I think it would have been useful to include some information about the ecology of different families or groups, and where they are found.
I understand why they didn't include most of the factors because they are so variable among species. But I don't understand why they didn't include ocean acidification, which I would think to be predictable based on past models.
ReplyDeleteFirst, I appreciate the authors including key assumptions they made at the end of the paper and how those may have impacted the results and outcomes of the models. Going off of Alex's comment, I think seeing the temperature and acidity range of the species studied and the modeled values in each of their scenarios. I think that having these included in the text of the paper would have helped readers and fellow scientists understand their results and predictions of the species's behavior in response to climatic changes. Last, while it is interesting to see the result of marine taxa having a less significant response to climate change, I am not surprised. Water has the ability to dissipate and average out temperature changes in the air, as seen in differences of max and min temperatures in areas near a coast and not. Overall, I think this paper has the ability to be a part of a larger discussion on climate change and the impacts of rising temperatures globally.
ReplyDeleteI like this paper a lot because it covers many interesting views and points discussed such as climate impact, biodiversity, and model-based biodiversity predictor shift assessment. It is an important approach to document and assesses the current faunal community assembly to forecast what is coming towards our near future. This model needs improvements by adding more data on disease emergence possibilities and reassessing the model to make it more realistic. There are very few scientists especially climatologists who are focusing on the connection between climate change and disease. Macroecological patterns get pretty handy here in this situation. This is the most intense climate-driven threat to global security and humanity.
ReplyDeleteI find the conclusion that marine species have lower extinction rate compared to terrestrial species, but the change in diversity will be similar pretty fascinating. It really makes me think about the human impact on both modes of life. I always thought that human had more impact on terrestrial species, so this is an eye-opener for me.
ReplyDeleteI thought this was an interesting paper. I also liked that they were clear about their limitations. I was surprised for the huge amount of species they included, modelling this and then compiling it in one graph must have require a lot of work for sure. It was interesting to see how sites with higher extinction rates are also the ones more prone to be invaded, it made me think of what has been previously discussed in class about competitive interactions as drivers of biodiversity.
ReplyDeleteI liked this paper. I think it is very interesting that they explicitly include dispersal in their models, something I haven´t seen often for terrestrial biodiversity analyses.
ReplyDeleteUsing these models to predict climate through fossil taxa in the past has become pretty popular, so it was nice to see someone use this modeling to project into the future. Perhaps I just don’t look at this topic, but it was a neat analysis. I always appreciate when authors outline their limitations, too, which I think is especially pertinent for predictions.
ReplyDeleteI appreciate how organized this paper is. Table one is beautifully laid out and even the equations how a brief explanation of what each variable means. I normally don't care to learn about the math due to the fact I don't understand it but this definitely helped. I also like how the author described different scenarios of interactions.
ReplyDeleteAlways cool to read about marine biology. Never heard of bioclimatic envelopes, pretty neat to read about them. Figure 3 was a really sweet visual. Even if things make sense in writing, it's always nice to have a visual to tie it together.
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